Canizares leads Kaymer in Paris

Golf Betting Lines

07/02/2010 - Paris, France (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Spain's Alejandro Canizares fired his second straight five-under 66 on Friday to take a one-shot lead over defending champion Martin Kaymer at the Open de France.

Canizares birdied his last three holes and finished two rounds at Le Golf National with a 10-under 132, two strokes shy of Seve Ballesteros' 36-hole tournament scoring record.

Kaymer, who defeated Lee Westwood in a playoff last year, shot a 67 on Friday to sit one stroke off the lead at nine-under 133.

First-round leader Robert-Jan Derksen of the Netherlands had a 71 -- eight shots worse than his Thursday score -- and dropped into third place at eight- under 134.

Steve Webster (66) was another stroke further back at seven-under 135.

Derksen played in a morning threesome and was still in the lead when he finished his round. Afterward, he settled in to watch the Netherlands knock of World Cup favorite Brazil, 2-1, in South Africa.

But his lead did not survive the day.

Canizares and Kaymer waited out a rain delay of two hours and 25 minutes, then caught Derksen with birdies near the end of their rounds.

Kaymer was first, making a birdie at the 14th to tie the Dutchman for the lead. He later birdied the 17th to move on shot ahead.

Canizares, meanwhile, collected four birdies in his last five holes, including three in a row at the end of the round to take his one-shot lead.

The son of four-time Ryder Cup player Jose Maria Canizares, Alejandro captured his only European Tour win at the 2006 Russian Open. He made it through qualifying school last year to earn his playing privileges for 2010.

"I was a little negative in my play last year. I wasn't into it very much and had a couple of problems, personal problems," said Canizares, who is ranked 205th in the world. "But this year I came out, I got my card again, so it was like a new start and I knew what I lost and I learned to appreciate it a little more."

Kaymer is chasing his sixth European Tour win and second of the season. He is beginning a unique two-week stretch that will also see him defend his title next week at the Scottish Open.

Derksen has two career wins, the last coming in 2005.

NOTES: The cut line fell at one-over 143 and European Ryder Cup captain Colin Montgomerie led the list of the departed...Jose Maria Olazabal, who was playing for the first time since last October, shot a respectable 70 but still finished at 10-over 152 to miss the cut...Robert Karlsson withdrew from the tournament because of a strained wrist but said he would be ready for the British Open in two weeks...Westwood was seven shots back after a 69.

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Sportsbook Betting Lines

Who Makes the Sportsbook Betting Lines?

Las Vegas Sports Consultants (LVSC) is the world’s premier oddsmaking company and the most respected authority on making the lines. Mike Seba is a Senior Oddsmaker at LVSC and has been making lines for the last six years. In our extended interview, Seba explained that there are 4-5 oddsmakers assigned to make lines for each of the major sports (pro & college football and basketball; MLB, NHL, boxing, golf). Each of these oddsmakers bring unique opinions, strengths and weaknesses to the process. Oddsmakers at LVSC are professional sports junkies who love what they do and would probably do it for nothing if you asked them, but they do get paid for it. By necessity their approach is very research-oriented and concise, since with millions of dollars at risk there is little margin for error.

“You either have a passion for it or you don’t,” Seba said.

“The #1 thing for us is to make a line for each game that creates good two-way action. We do this by drawing from past experiences and applying them to current situations. People think it’s much more complicated, but it’s not. “

What are the Football Betting Lines Trying to Accomplish?

There is a common misconception that point spreads represent the oddsmakers’ prediction of how many points the favorite will win by. That is not the case at all – their intent is NOT to evenly split the ATS result between the teams; rather, their goal is to attract equal betting action on both sides. Stated another way, they want to create a line that half the people find appealing to bet one way while the other half find it appealing to bet the other way (known as ‘dividing the action’).

Divided action means the sportsbook is guaranteed a profit on the game because of the fee charged to the bettor (called juice or vig – typically $11 bet to win $10).

How the Opening Line Is Made

The opening line is the first line created by the oddsmakers, which is then sent out to sportsbooks. Of course there is an entire method to the madness on how the opening line is created. Seba explained that it all starts with each oddsmaker creating a line on each game based upon their own personal approach. This usually includes having up-to-date power ratings on each team.

Power ratings are the oddsmaker’s value of each team and are used as a guide to calculate a "preliminary" pointspread on an upcoming game. The power ratings are adjusted after each game a team plays. Examples of non-game factors that would require an adjustment to a team's power rating are key player injuries and player trades.

Once a game’s power rating based pointspread is determined, the oddsmaker will make adjustments to that line after considering each team's most recent games played and previous games played against that opponent. Also, adjustments are made after reading each team’s local newspapers to get a sense of what the coaches & players are thinking going into the game.

Since the oddsmaker’s ultimate goal is equally dividing the sports betting action, public perception and sportsbook betting patterns must be taken into account. For example, the public might have heavy betting interest week after week on a popular college football betting team such as USC. If an oddsmaker comes up with a preliminary line of USC -7, then an adjustment up to -7.5 or -8 would be made in response to the public’s expected USC bias.

The last step in the line-making process for each oddsmaker is taking one final look to determine whether or not the line "feels right." This is where common sense and past experience with how games are bet enters into the picture.

A round-table discussion among the 4-5 oddsmakers involved in making the line for each sport is then conducted and a consensus line is decided upon by the Odds Director before it is released to the sportsbooks. Of the 4-5 oddsmakers, generally the 2 most respected opinions are weighed more heavily by the Odds Director before he decides on the final line.

Why Sports Betting Lines Change

Once the opening line is released by LVSC, the individual sportsbooks decide if they want to make any adjustments before offering it to the public. Reasons for such adjustments include:

Experts working for the individual books having a strong opinion on the game

Individual books having players who consistently bet with certain tendencies (such as an extreme bias toward favorites or toward a certain popular team like USC)

The purpose of these adjustments, like all line adjustments, is to more equally divide the betting action.

Once betting begins, sportsbooks can adjust the line at any time. In doing so they attempt to make more attractive the team that is getting less action. By moving the line, sportsbooks can influence how the public bets on a particular game.

For example, if the pointspread on a game is 7 and most of the money is coming in on the underdog (taking the +7), sportsbooks will then move the number down to 6 ½ to try and attract money on the favorite.

Moving the line is the oddsmaker's effort to balance betting action, and often times such moves can have a major impact on a bettor’s decision. Oddsmakers can also change the line depending on various event-related factors such as player injuries or weather. Obviously, if the line comes out a week ahead of the event (which is the case in football), there is much that could happen during the week leading up to the event that could affect the line. Oddsmakers have to determine if any changes are necessary and send out an "adjusted line."

“The main objective is that our clients get equal action on both sides,” Seba said. “We’re not trying to pick the team that covers the spread, we’re trying to make it a coin flip, a tough decision (for the bettor). If we’ve done that, we’ve done our job.”

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